Early Dropout and Underachievement Risk Index
Introduction
The underachievement and ESL risk index is a screening index that indicates the need to take preventive measures to minimize the risk of underachievement and early dropout, with special attention to vulnerable populations. The index potentially combines the impacts of positive and negative factors (facilitators vs barriers) on academic achievement, engagement, and the continuation of studies.
The index is expected to weigh the level of risk, vulnerability and disadvantage of a particular student or group of students in terms of academic performance and school engagement compared to the rest of the students. It is divided into educational levels, where each level includes specific factors for the developmental, family and social stages of the students. It is based on a nested model of relationships between factors.
The output will be an online questionnaire or similar. Their evaluation will be integrated into the safe learning e-profiles, which are “personal files” that will enable understanding and designing the necessary support to tackle school underachievement and disengagement. The online questionnaires will explore the risk of educational exclusion of the students, their degree of socio-emotional security and the risk of underachievement and ESL.
Objective of the Index
The purpose of the underachievement and ESL risk index (UERI) is to weigh the risk, vulnerability and disadvantage of a student or a group of students in terms of disengagement and underachievement compared to the rest of the students. Special attention is given to students experiencing socio-economic vulnerabilities, including those from migrant backgrounds, ethnic minorities, those with disabilities, those in non-parental care, or those in low socio-economic situations.
The theoretical framework
Early School Leaving (ESL) results from a gradual process of educational disengagement and underachievement, leading to long-term personal and societal consequences (European Commission, 2013; Ross & Leathwood, 2013). Research identifies low academic performance, grade repetition, lack of teacher support, and feelings of loneliness as key predictors (Vinciguerra et al., 2021; Frostad et al., 2015). Underachievement—defined as failing to meet basic proficiency or performing below potential (European Commission Directorate-General for Education Youth Sport and Culture, 2020)—is influenced by personal, social, and institutional factors, and is closely linked to disengagement (Rubenstein et al., 2012). Together, these elements create a reinforcing cycle that significantly contributes to ESL. The interconnectedness of engagement, achievement, and ESL is emphasized as central to understanding and addressing the issue.
Student (in)security Risk Index
Introduction
The Student (in)security risk index is a screening index that indicates the need to take preventive measures to minimize the impact of socio-emotional insecurity in learning underachievement and disengagement for individual students and groups.
The index is defined as the overall security that a student experiences in his or her daily school activities, and it will be calculated as a weighted combination of attachment security, teacher-child relationship, teacher-parent alliance and school bonding factors. The index will evaluate the level of socio-emotional security of a particular student or a group of students compared to the rest of the students.
The output will be an online questionnaire or similar. Their evaluation will be integrated into the safe learning e-profiles, which are “personal files” that will enable understanding and designing the necessary support to tackle school underachievement and disengagement. The online questionnaires will explore the affective and relational needs of the students, their degree of socio-emotional security and the risk of underachievement and ESL.
Objective of index
The purpose of the students’ (in)security risk index (SIRI) is to identify and evaluate the impact of socio-emotional (in)security determinants on their overall sense of safety in daily school activities. Special attention is given to students experiencing socio-economic vulnerabilities, including those from migrant backgrounds, ethnic minorities, those with disabilities, those in non-parental care, or those in low socio-economic situations.
The risk of insecurity in the school setting is shaped by various factors, including socio-emotional determinants, type of attachment to parents, the relationship between parents and the school, and the quality of the student’s relationships with their immediate school environment, such as teachers and peers.
The theoretical framework
The index model integrates attachment theory and inclusive education to assess students’ sense of (in)security in school. Rooted in Bowlby’s (1982) theory, it highlights the foundational role of early caregiver bonds in emotional and cognitive development (Cassidy et al., 2014; Ranson & Urichuk, 2006; Rees, 2007). In schools, teacher-student relationships (TSRs) function as “attachment-like” bonds, influencing student well-being, motivation, and academic success (Pianta et al., 1995; Di Lisio et al., 2025; Peng et al., 2022). Positive TSRs foster engagement and resilience, while negative ones increase the risk of disengagement and ESL. Peer relationships also play a critical role in shaping students’ well-being and sense of belonging (Demirtas-Zorbaz et al., 2018; Saleh et al., 2019; Dias et al., 2024). Framed within inclusive education (Ainscow, 2005, 2016), the model promotes equitable learning environments that value diversity and meet all students’ needs (Pradhan & Naik, 2024), particularly those from vulnerable groups (Liu et al., 2024; Scanlon et al., 2019). The model emphasizes that emotional, social, and academic dimensions must be addressed holistically to support students’ school experience (Cerna et al., 2021).
